Monday, March 7, 2011

Spring Election Campaign As Early As This Week?

Will we be plunged into an election campaign before the scheduled March 22 budget?   Apparently there are rumors floating around we could be as early as sometime this week.  The Libs are contemplating bringing forth a snap non confidence motion. NDP MP Joe Comartin makes a good point.
Mr. Comartin reacted with surprise to news of the possible Liberal motion, and put forth an unusual explanation when he said it was unlikely Mr. Brison would get a chance to move his motion. Mr. Comartin said MPs do not expect Mr. Milliken to release a decision on the dispute over the cost of the crime bills until after the March 22 budget.

"The speculation around the Hill is that Peter is going to hold off as long as possible, which means he won't rule next week and the week after that is a break week, the budget comes down on the 22nd but he won't rule before the budget," said Mr. Comartin.

Asked why Mr. Milliken would take the unlikely position of basing his decision on an impending federal budget, Mr. Comartin replied: "If it's obvious that the budget is going to bring them [the government] down, because all the motion [Mr. Brison's] does is move it over to committee, the motion is kind of irrelevant given that you're going to have an election intervening."
Nik Nanos believes the voters are not going to buy into this. 
Pollster Nik Nanos was shocked when he heard of the possible scenario in an interview with The Hill Times. He said there is little chance an arcane Parliamentary battle over MP privilege would stick with voters.
Voters are more interested in the day to day bread and butter issues.
Keith Beardsley says it smacks of desperation on the part of the Liberals and believes it could backfire on them especially with Jack Layton trying to recover from hip surgery that he had just on Friday.
Such a move reflects the desperation of the Liberals to try to get back into power at any cost and it would appear to the public to be exactly what it is –  a self-serving attempt that has none of the interests of the public in mind.
Most Canadians are also smart enough to know that forcing an election is a means for the party to solve its leadership woes. Either Ignatieff will win or he will be gone. Helping the Liberals find a leader won’t attract votes
There is also the Canadian sense of fair play. To force an election campaign while NDP leader Jack Layton  is on the sidelines recovering from a hip operation (not to mention the after-effects of prostate cancer) would not be seen in a positive light.  If I was the NDP I would be playing up the party’s attempts to win concessions from the government  and playing down Layton’s recovery speed. At least that would highlight that — unlike the Liberals, the NDP is in it for Canadians.
Liberals are playing with fire.  If they go ahead with this plan even if the other opposition parties play along with them, they could come to regret it.  It will play in to the Conservative narrative "He didn't come back for you"
For the Conservatives what a gift this would be. It would prove beyond a doubt that their attack ad line on Ignatieff — “He didn’t come back for you” — is 100% correct.
I don't know why the Libs are so hot to go into an election with their poll numbers the way they are. They only reason I can see is to get rid of their leader asap. Oh, yeah, as far as polls, they'll bring up Kim Campbell vs Chretien numbers.and Paul Martin vs. Stephen Harper numbers. They are underestimating PM Stephen Harper,he's no dummy.  PM Harper is no Kim Campbell and Michael Ignatieff is no Jean Chretien. Neither is Stephen Harper no Paul Martin and Ignatieff is certainly no Stephen Harper. Both Kim Campbell and Paul Martin conducted lousy campaigns. I'm sure PM Stephen Harper has learned from their mistakes and his own for that matter and will make an effort as not to repeat them.  The opposition will have an uphill battle.

Why can't they wait until the budget?  It's only really days away anyway. Voters are no dummies either.  They will see through this and punish the Libs or who ever that will initiate this.  If this is the way they want to play, bring on the election. Mark my words, Liberals will come to regret it.